Two years after President Bola Tinubu pledged to prioritise national security and reform Nigeria’s security architecture, the country remains gripped by unrelenting violence, with thousands of lives lost and many more displaced in a worsening crisis that defies government assurances.
In his inaugural speech on 29 May 2023, Tinubu declared, “Security shall be the top priority of our administration because neither prosperity nor justice can prevail amidst insecurity and violence,” promising better-equipped and trained forces with improved welfare.
Despite these assurances under the Renewed Hope Agenda, attacks by armed non-state actors have surged, particularly in rural regions where communities are routinely raided, kidnapped or slaughtered.
The administration’s efforts have seen intermittent gains, including high-profile offensives and surrenders, yet these are offset by persistent terror campaigns and emerging threats that strain the nation’s stability.
Within months of Tinubu assuming office, on 14 August 2023, 36 soldiers were killed in Niger State and a military aircraft was downed by a terror group linked to Dogo Gide.
The country reeled again when over 100 villagers were massacred on Christmas Eve in Plateau State, and in March 2024, 137 schoolchildren were abducted in Kaduna.
More recently, coordinated suicide bombings in Gwoza killed 32, while jihadists slaughtered over 100 villagers in Yobe in September.
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Amnesty International estimates over 10,000 have died since May 2023, though government figures, while lower, confirm widespread bloodshed.
Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) show 7,472 killed and 12,584 abducted in two years, with killings slightly declining in the second year, a trend linked to increased offensives and negotiations.
The National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, claims progress with the elimination of over 13,000 terrorists and the surrender of over 124,000 insurgents and their families.
“Over 35 bandits warlords surrendered as part of our non-kinetic approach, which we call the Kaduna Model,” Ribadu said, adding that new rehabilitation programmes like “Operation Safe Corridor North-west” have been launched.
Some states like Kaduna and Katsina report reduced violence due to peace accords, but others, Sokoto, Zamfara, Niger, remain engulfed in lawlessness.
Meanwhile, insurgents in Borno, Yobe and Adamawa, now adopting guerrilla tactics, continue to overrun military positions.
New terror cells, such as Mahmuda and Lakurawa in Sokoto and Niger States, signal a dangerous evolution of the conflict, influenced by Sahelian spillovers.
Regional data highlight the gravity: the North-west tops the insecurity chart with 2,456 killed and 7,260 abducted, followed by the North-central, where Benue leads in fatalities.
In the North-east, Borno remains the epicentre of Boko Haram and ISWAP operations.
Elsewhere, southern states suffer from cult violence, militancy and communal unrest, particularly in the South-east and South-south.
In the South-east, 536 were killed and 390 abducted, while in the South-south, 458 died and 811 were kidnapped, mostly in Delta and Rivers states.
Despite government optimism, the figures reveal a nation still ravaged by insecurity, with no end in sight.
