As President Bola Tinubu completes two years in office this May, a sweeping wave of defections from opposition parties to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has triggered significant shifts in Nigeria’s political alignment, raising questions about the country’s democratic balance ahead of the 2027 general elections.
According to the ICIR, notable opposition figures, some of them former presidential contenders and key regional powerbrokers, have crossed over to the APC since the beginning of 2025, a trend analysts suggest may weaken future coalition prospects.
Among the most prominent is Delta State Governor Sheriff Oborevwori, who led the entire Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) structure in his state to the APC in April, joined by his predecessor, Ifeanyi Okowa, the PDP’s 2023 vice-presidential candidate, causing national shockwaves.
Earlier in January, Senator Ned Nwoko, representing Delta North, also abandoned the PDP for the APC, while former Kaduna Senator and activist Shehu Sani made headlines in February for switching parties in a bid to support Governor Uba Sani’s re-election campaign.
The northern realignment gained more steam in May when all three PDP senators from Kebbi State – Adamu Aliero, Yahaya Abubakar Abdullahi, and Garba Maidoki – defected following a closed-door meeting with President Tinubu at the Presidential Villa.
In Kano, Senator Kawu Samaila, formerly of the NNPP, also confirmed his defection in April, stating that “All politics is local, and my primary concern has always been… the welfare of my immediate constituency.”
The trend continued in Katsina and Kano, where at least six members of the House of Representatives dumped their opposition platforms for the ruling party, citing internal party crises and the need for “stability” in governance.
Defending the wave of defections, APC National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje said, “One party’s state is by negotiation… If they decide to come to our party willingly, I think there is nothing wrong with that,” asserting that such moves reflect public endorsement of APC-led governance.
Critics, however, warn that the concentration of political power within a single party risks eroding checks and balances, a sentiment shared by opposition figures who fear the country is inching toward a de facto one-party state.
With the opposition visibly weakened, analysts believe the ruling party is better positioned than ever to consolidate power, though questions remain about the democratic costs of such a political realignment.
As Nigeria approaches the 2027 elections, these defections may prove pivotal in shaping both party primaries and the broader national discourse on governance, inclusion, and political pluralism.
ICIR
